Friday, February 29, 2008

Liberal substance

Right. The democratic primaries are entertaining, so much that everyone (inside and outside America) is siding with either Obama or Hillary, as if THEY were the opposites, as if one would be good and the other one bad. Then there's drama, pub discussions, rallying, you know, the circus that we all need alongside the daily bread.

But - some facts have reminded me that reality is not quite like that.

First: Obama and Hillary are quite similar in terms of policy. Too similar, in fact. Universal or almost universal health care. Pull out of Iraq in an orderly line or in a bang. Reverse Nafta or propose a new Nafta. On and on the list goes, split much more along semantic than ideological lines.

Second: For as much Hillary has been punching Obama, she cannot beat him TOO hard, otherwise she'd give republicans some meat for the REAL contest in the next months. When McCain comes to punch Obama, he's probably going to kick and use a baseball bat as well. This article in the New York Times election blog actually explains it much more clearly than I ever could.

Third: are democrats really the best option now? I mean, for a non-American like myself, should I cheer for the Dems? What would it mean to me if they won?
OK. Within that point: Bush has been terrible in a lot of issues. He and his party definitely represent a portion of American conservatism that thinks backwards and inwards, and which does very little to share with the world the good things of American culture. In fact, it does a lot to share the bad things (pollution, consumerism, xenophobia, ...).

But - what is it that the world needs from America, economically speaking? Is it less pollution? Probably, but not most importantly. Open trade is the correct answer. Every country wants to buy and sell its goods to America, and America should want to buy and sell goods for other countries, in a process that would leave everyone better off. Again, a look at this well-balanced article from the Financial Times explains it better than I would.

The FT also reminds us that both Obama and Hillary have been speaking as if Nafta - arguably the most pro-free-trade action in America in the past 20 years - was bad for America because it made Americans lose jobs. The agreement, in their words, should be overhauled. Which is a starting point not to pursue free trade at all.

Quoting the FT:

Trade policy has no effect on net employment: you can as easily have full employment, or chronic unemployment, under autarky as under free trade. The purpose of liberal trade is not to “create jobs” – the term is a badge of economic illiteracy – but to change the pattern of work and raise living standards overall. As with new technology, there are winners and losers. The right policy is not to turn back integration, any more than it would be to ban the fork-lift truck. It is to ensure that the overall gains are widely shared and the victims get help.

The saddest thing is that the Democrats who understand this reasoning believe that the party’s supporters are too dull to grasp it, and must be fed some protectionist red meat. The challenge, they believe, is to pander to ignorance while doing the least harm.


After this masterclass from an expert, I have nothing to add.


Oh, actually I do. I have always been very positively impressed on how much the Financial Times and The Economist transcend political divides and never - ever - side with political ideologies in their opinions. They are, however, consistent defenders of liberalism. How long will it take for Brazil to have anything like that in the media? Our reporters at times seem most worried in ousting or defending the government, selectively choosing what themes to write, rather than bring out issues whose discussion would improve well-being of the nation.

Not to mention it is tiring to always read both the leftist and the rightist column, because I know that the truth is in neither one. These days, forming an opinion out of Brazilian media sounds like doing a statistical analysis: you collect a massive amount of data, then exclude the outliers, than figure out the mean and standard deviation, perhaps test if it is a normal distribution...

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Tyler Durden

http://youtube.com/watch?v=JAuki07wiUo

INT. LOU'S TAVERN - BASEMENT - NIGHT

LOUD. An enormous CROWD of guys, including Jack and Bob,
stands around Tyler, who's in the center of the circle,
holding up his hands to quiet them...

TYLER
I look around... I look around and
see a lot of new faces.

An enthusiastic RUMBLE from the crowd.

TYLER
Shut up! Which means a lot of you
have been breaking the first two
rules of fight club.

A glum silence falls. Guys look at each other.

TYLER
I see in fight club the strongest and
smartest men who have ever lived --
an entire generation pumping gas and
waiting tables; or they're slaves
with white collars.
Advertisements have them chasing cars
and clothes, working jobs they hate
so they can buy shit they don't need.
We are the middle children of
history, with no purpose or place.
We have no great war, or great
depression. The great war is a
spiritual war. The great depression
is our lives. We were raised by
television to believe that we'd be
millionaires and movie gods and rock
stars -- but we won't. And we're
learning that fact. And we're very,
very pissed-off.

The crowd erupts into a DEAFENING CHORUS of agreement. Jack
looks at the blazing excitement in the eyes of the crowd.

TYLER
We are the quiet young men who listen
until it's time to decide.

Sunday, February 24, 2008

Pop music

One memorable quote from John Cusack's character in "High Fidelity" is:

"Do I listen to pop music because I'm miserable
Or am I miserable because I listen to pop music?"

I am in the Uk right now, with a rental car, without CDs, having to drive some 10-20 minutes to work, in a region with not a lot of radio stations. Which means I have been indulging in pop radios, even though in my homeland I avoid them like a vampire avoids sunlight. I mostly go from BBC1 to Capital FM and back.

Surprise surprise, some things are actually pretty good in there. Especially Duffy, a young welsh singer that sounds like an old New Orleans mama in her hit "Mercy". Adele is quite good as well (though a bit reminiscent of American Idol winners Carrie and Kelly Clarkson). And of course they play a lot of Amy Winehouse, which had been a great addition to my CD collection earlier in the year.

But then I cannot dodge from Kylie Minogue. She's everywhere. And "Wow" (her latest single) is one of those addictive songs that are no good but can't leave one's head. It is very British, I have to say - a song that I totally imagine being played in a pub, with a bunch of drunken girls dancing to it in a hen's party. Just like Jamelia's "Superstar" 3 years ago (God, time flies).

What do I make of this whole thing the end? Not sure yet. But maybe the moral of the story is that pop music is unescapable, and if you can't defeat it, join it. Well, it's certainly not edifying, but at least I found out that it's harmless.

Tuesday, February 12, 2008

Looking forward to the Big Cups

You can see that season is coming by the ringing of the bells.

In case of the Copa Libertadores and the Uefa Champions League, the world's two premier football club competitions, the bells come in form of press coverage, which leads to word of mouth, side bets with friends, and that sort of thing.

The Libertadores

I'm glad that Europe is increasingly keener on South American football. After last year's good coverage of Copa America (I was in Belgium then, and could watch all matches I wanted), it seems that the Libertadores will also be treated as it should. In two of my favorite readings (BBC Sport and Guardian Unlimited Football), balanced and informed articles were written recently on the subject.

But, while the always excellent Tim Vickery of the BBC pits the cup as Brazilians x Boca, and flashes São Paulo as the strongest contender, the Guardian's Conrad Leach takes a road less traveled and invites readers for a gamble bet on Cruzeiro.

I am not sure how much Mr Leach wrote that just to show off how knowledgeable he is, or if he really believes Cruzeiro can stand up against Boca, SP and Flamengo. I for one am not convinced. As I commented in his blog, this Cruzeiro side looks refreshingly young, but not nearly as talented as the refreshingly young Santos of 2002. Which by the way lost against an experienced and catimbeiro Boca in June 2003. I'm more in agreement with André Rizek who paints them as unpredictable - not favorites, but likely to do damage.

The Champions League

Oh boy. Last night I was stuck in my Fantasy Football team selection. Round of 16 is tough, because you have to back up the likely winners to avoid costly transfers in the next round. And this year choosing the winners is not that simple.

Fair enough, Barça and Chelsea look pretty certain winners. Man United and Porto too, in spite of the bit stronger opposition. But then...

Real Madrid would edge past Roma with Robinho, but without him, who knows. Right, Robben and Higuain are as good subsitutes as Schuster could ever ask for; but still, will they gel so well with Raul and Ruud as Robinho did? And as for Sevilla and Fenerbahce, that's as random as African Cup semifinals. I favor the Spaniards for the recent expertise in European two-legged ties.

Finally, the crème de la crème. Runaway league leaders with a history of European underachievement, against the most traditional of European winners, who currently underachieve in the local leagues. (I should copyright that phrase. I wrote it myself, I swear). Arsenal x Milan and Inter x Liverpool are THE most mouthwatering round-of-16 ties since Chelsea x Barcelona in 2005.

Honestly, I have no prognosis on these. None whatsoever. Seriously. But I did take risks in Fantasy Football, and chose players from only one side of each of the ties. Who did I choose? Not gonna say now, Fabio, wait.

Last but not least: thank you uefa.com. Increasing the Fantasy Football "money" to 110 was really necessary, and just made the whole thing more fun by avoiding me to keep the reserve defenders from Celtic in my bench all the way through the final, just because they cost 3 "moneys". I actually really like my reserves this time.

Wednesday, February 06, 2008

In my place

I finally found my very own street!

Sunday, February 03, 2008

Jornalistas esportivos

Estou meio viciado no ótimo blog do André Rizek ultimamente.

Um bom exemplo do estilo dele - "conhecedor de futebol sem ser chato" - é este post sobre o PVC - que aliás leva essa definição ao extremo.

Mas, PVC já é lenda, fato - e Rizek, seu contemporâneo, está no caminho.