Tuesday, June 27, 2006

Relishing

It is a very exciting thought that 10 players involved in the 1998 finals will have the chance to meet again for a second contest.

At that evening in Paris, France's line up contained Barthez, Thuram, and Zidane, who are starters now. Trezeguet, Henry and Vieira were not first-choices.

For Brazil, the ubiquitous Cafu, Roberto Carlos and Ronaldo started, with Emerson and Dida on the bench.

France's game was and still is revolving around Zidane being deployed behind the main strikeforce. The difference is that now Henry plays alone upfront (though being assisted by the excellent Ribery) and not conjured with Argentina-born Trezeguet.

Brazil's game, on the other hand, included two specialist sitting midfielders, two offensive midfielders (a passer in Leonardo and a carrier in Rivaldo), a fixed striker (Ronaldo) and another in a supporting role (Bebeto). In a sense, it stays the same, however with improved midfield players and no capabilty of either striker to play facing the goal instead of facing the play. Maybe if Robinho starts he'll resemble Bebeto's role in a better way.

But - before I miss the point - let's all anticipate a great match with a lot of tension and rivalry. Frenchmen, trust me, I think we want to beat you more badly than the Argentinians. And that is REALLY bad for you guys. 98 did not heal yet. Argentina 90 was healed already with Copa America, Confederations Cup and many other instances. But 98 was not.

Friday, June 23, 2006

You know what, we do like Ronaldo

I don't have children, but as expected I have parents, and as a child I used to think that the last thing I ever wanted to happen in my life was if my parents were disappointed in me. Like, if they ever looked at me and thought, "Jesus, he could've been so much more". I guess I wouldn't like to feel like that towards my future children either (but don't let them read this, I don't wanna be overbearing).

Why am I saying this? Well, it is a bit of how we Brazilians feel about Ronaldo. It's not that we don't like him; it's just that we know he is capable of doing a lot. He's raised his own bar so high we expect him to reach it again every time.

He is definitely not as fast as in 1998, but he is a hell of a better player. His vision and reading of the game improved by quantum leaps; he holds the ball in front of the area for long enough to distribute it the best way, or to time his shot until it cannot be missed. Adriano's goal against Australia and his own second goal today stand to prove.

As much as his namesake Ronaldinho dictates the game in midfield, Ronaldo is the valve in attack, the key decision maker that defines who will deliver the mercy shot at the keeper. He has become the Riquelme of the centre-forwards - a master of technique, guile and directness instead of the pacy virtuoso of the late 90's.

And Ghana without Michael Essien will be a great opportunity to keep showing that. Unless the coach resumes to the stupid formation that puts him and Adriano in the very same position.

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In 2002 Brazil played the third game with some reserves, having already qualified. We played in white shorts, and scored four goals; two of them by Ronaldo and one by the reserve left-back.

Same in 2006.

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I do like Australia. Maybe a Liverpool fan bias for Kewell, but I also think Brett Emerton is one of the best midfielders in this Cup (at least one of the most influential for his team) and Viduka is also looking very sharp. But Italy might prove a bit too much, especially without Emerton.

And why didn't Schwarzer play today for Christ's sake?

Anyway, I had bet before the Cup on Australia and Ecuador reaching the Last 16.

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I cannot start my day properly without reading World Cup Blogs at the Guardian.

Monday, June 19, 2006

My second round thoughts

My best and worse for the second round of World Cup matches.

Top three:

1. Maxim Kalinichenko
Who? Obviously it is the obscure reserve Ukrainian midfielder who happens to be a lookalike from LOST's Sawyer, unknown to the planet until he single-handedly destroyed Saudi Arabia (ok, not much of a strong opponent, I have to admit) eclipsing no less than Andriy Shevchenko. Bet we'll be seeing more of him in the next Champions League. And maybe Ukraine meets Brazil in quarter-finals, who knows....

2. Robinho
I wouldn't go so far to say he's better than Ronaldo already. And Ronnie surely deserves a lot of credit for his performance against Australia, when his ability more than compensated the enlarged waistline. BUT there is no doubt the team gets far more dangerous with Robinho. He should've scored once or twice against Australia - in the second goal, he hit the post - and we all remember what happened a year ago when he started alongside Adriano in the Confederations Cup. Well, some remember better than others. Like the Argentines.

3. José Pekerman
He is not the biggest gambler of the tournament because Marco Van Basten is there. But it is undeniable that betting on the questioned Abbondanzieri, Burdisso, Mascherano, Maxi Rodríguez and Saviola (against the more estabilished likes of, say, Lux, Zanetti, Verón, Kily González and Diego Milito) is paying off enormously. By far the most consistent, threatening and entertaining football being played in Germany is Argentine. Tanta gloria, tanto fútbol, desplegado por el mundo....

Worst three:

1. France
Uncroyable. I have to say that the only reason I endured watching 90 minutes of Korea 1-1 France was because I watched it at an airport lounge, with my flight 2 hours late, the TV was in front of me and I was too tired to move but too tense to sleep. Wish I had a magazine. France are dismal, dull, disorganized, uninterested, desolé and so forth. They started promisingly with one or two forays from Sagnol and a couple of runs infield by Malouda, plus Henry's goal, but that was it. A pity for Zidane, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a team without him draw with Togo and get back home - deservedly.

2. Drawing and seeding system
Unbelievable that the Ivory Coast is out and that either Ghana or the Czechs will be out, while either Korea, Switzerland or France will be in the Last 16. Blame the inexplicable Fifa team rankings and the seeding system. Maybe blame Pelé.

3. Sven-Goran Eriksson
What to say. Where is the holding midfielder? Why was Rooney rushed in? How come Downing and Lennon get in the field and do not receive balls? Why did you call up Walcott if you'd not play him for Christ's sake? Luckily for him they'll play Ecuador in last 16 before the winner of Portugal v Holland in quarterfinals, who'd be the first REAL opponents since the beginning of qualifying.

Tuesday, June 13, 2006

Que Copa hein!

Excellent action so far. I'm thrilled by the quality of the matches and of the strikes. And it's also great that favorites are generally winning, and well. Generally.

My favorite World Cup things so far (not in order):
  • Ivorian defenders and defensive midfielders- short but quick and industrious. Will go far, definitely.
  • Tomas Rosicky - I can only dream of him playing alongside Henry, Fabregas, Hleb et al next season.
  • Kaka - when I said in 2002 he'd be better in his prime than Rivaldo in his prime, I was laughed at. Laugh now suckers.
  • Online narratives by The Guardian - a no-miss. Brit humor to its prime.
  • Pundit blogs by The Guardian - same
  • The Leipzig stadium - too bad it'll host only third division matches.
  • TV Terra: free online videos of best moments and goals one minute after the match - a blessing for workers. I can type in my spreadsheet and check Togo missing a handful of goals at the same time!!!!
  • Lastly: The Iranian pennant - a piece of a Persian rug! As the Guardian (brilliantly as always) put it,
It's not often that other countries are urged to follow Iran's lead, but in the world of football pennants, the Middle Eastern minnows are blazing an impressive trail. Before Iran's opening game against Mexico, captain Ali Daei received the lacklustre, traditional triangular number from Mexican Rafael Márquez. The Iranian, meanwhile, proudly handed over a huge, ornately decorated picture frame housing what appeared to be a bit of carpet with some squiggles on. Márquez looked a little embarrassed, like someone who'd brought a four-pack of Foster's to an ambassador's reception. Other teams should follow suit. When England play Trinidad & Tobago, David Beckham should ditch the Three Lions flag and give Dwight Yorke a picture of the tennis player scratching her backside, that one of the hunky man holding a baby, or, even better, a Jordan calendar.

Wednesday, June 07, 2006

More World Cup predictions

Please note this is being written before the World Cup starts.

Today and maybe tomorrow I pick some games that will be very interesting to watch in the next couple of weeks. All in Brazilian time.

FOUR UNDERRATED GAMES

SWITZERLAND V KOREA REPUBLIC
Friday 23.06 Hanover (16:00)

Last match of the group, very likely that both teams will reach this point level on 3 points (having lost to France and beaten Togo).
Given that both squads are even, and known more for teamwork rather than individual talents, expect a lot of diligence and maybe a lot of goals.
My guess: Korea suffocates the Swiss and wins 2-1.


AUSTRALIA V JAPAN
Monday 12.06 Kaiserslautern (10:00)

Both have points to prove and a lot of expectation on their shoulders. The winner, if one comes up, will take on Croatia on a different spirit, with much greater likelihood to progress. The loser has to gamble it all against Brazil.
The fact that this is the first match of the group actually favors the likely winner vis-a-vis Croatia. They'll be able to plan their style of play much more accordingly.
My guess: Australia outmuscles Japan 2-1. But Japan`s goal will definitely be classy.


ECUADOR V COSTA RICA
Thursday 15.06 Hamburg (10:00)

Minnows, yes. Boring, nope. Both will enter HSV's stadium feeling certain they can win. Both will be all-out forward. Both defenses are kinda lame - maybe Ecuador's a bit less lame. Expect plenty of goals.
My guess: Ecuador wins 3-2, but please don't ask me who scores.


SPAIN V TUNISIA
Monday 19.06 Stuttgart (16:00)

An easy guess? Not so sure. Spain will come off scattered after a battle against Ukraine (though I truly think they can win), and Tunisia will have cruised past the Saudis in the first round.
Note that the North Africans are an experienced, organized, and even skillful team, who were African champions till last January. They will be tough to crack, but will also provide some entertainment like they did in last Confederations Cup.
And Spain will always be the most unpredictable team at a Cup.
My guess: a thrilling 2-2. Xabi Alonso scores from 30 m at minute 80-something when Tunisia leads 2-1.

Saturday, June 03, 2006

BBC World Cup predictions





I might be the biggest BBC pundit wannabe in the southern hemisphere.

WORLD CUP PREDICTIONS

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport2/hi/football/world_cup_2006/5020068.stm


Who will win the World Cup?

England. They are the only ones who can choke Brazil in the midfield. Some other teams have defenders good enough to cope with Ronaldo and Adriano - Italy and Argentina for instance - but when it comes to stopping supply, England can and will be decisive. There's a lot of strenght of character in players like Gerrard, Lampard and Terry, for instance, that does make an impact at that level. No one in Brazil - not even Emerson or Cafu - speaks out loud on the field like any of those three, or even like Gary Neville for that matter.

If not England, then Argentina, Brazil, Italy (in this order of likelihood) and no one else. Full-stop.

Team to watch

I'll go for Portugal here - they're not less strong than in 2004 and everyone knows how good Scolari is in the big stage.

In the "big guns" pool, I see Argentina and Italy doing good World Cups too in spite of their tough groups. Germany will make last 8 more due to lack of opposition than for merit.

Player to watch

I would have said Andriy Shevchenko before his injury. I'll choose then Kaka, who is more useful to Brazil than Ronaldinho, in my view.

Brazil has some tendencies to indulge in dull moments, especially when Adriano and Ronaldo get tired, or when Ze Roberto and the full-backs miss many passes; that is when Kaka's work rate and consistency are most fundamental, more than Gaucho's trickery.

And I think Steven Gerrard will end up as England's top scorer.

Surprise player

A couple of Mexican defenders are truly world class - especially keeper Osvaldo Sanchez and centre-back Carlos Salcido, both of whom I saw in action twice at the Libertadores this year. I think Mexico will end up between last 8 and semifinals, and much of that will be owed to a defence that, trust me, is much more than Rafael Marquez.

I also think Franck Ribéry in France, Cesc Fábregas in Spain and Javier Mascherano in Argentina will have their market values significantly increased after the Cup.

Surprise team

I used to tip Australia until recently, but Japan and Croatia will be tough to beat given what they've shown in pre-tournament games. I also used to think Ukraine would go far, but after warm-up games I'm not so adamant anymore they'd beat France or Korea comfortably at a last 16 tie.

So my strongest bet for surprise package will be Mexico, and the weirdest last 16 team will be Ecuador. As for the biggest losers in the group stage, Poland, Sweden, Holland, Switzerland.

What are you most looking forward to at the World Cup?

Betting a lot and mocking the loooooooooooooosers!!!!